Anton, Alexander

This User’s Guide is written for non-statisticians and presents workflow procedures and R Scripts for MnModel Phase 4 archaeological predictive modeling (Hobbs 2019b). Procedures for developing the MnModel Phase 4 Historic Vegetation Model are documented separately (Landrum and Hobbs 2019). Appendix A of this Guide provides higher-level instructions for download and installation of R and RStudio. These are the steps that are performed once per computer. Appendix B of the Guide covers preparation of archaeological data for sampling and implementing ArcGIS Python sampling tools. Appendix C of the Guide catalogs the tools developed for this project and describes their use. The main sections of this document cover executing statistical modeling and predictions in RStudio, exporting the results to ArcGIS, and classifying and evaluating the models. These steps are repeated for each modeling region.

The first MnModel hydrographic modeling procedures were developed in 2008 (Stark et al. 2008) utilizing modern hydrographic data, digital soils data, and geomorphic data to model locations of historic and prehistoric surface water. MnDOT updated the hydrographic model in 2018 to take advantage of the newly digitized data from the Public Land Survey maps, more comprehensive digital soils data (gSSURGO), statewide geomorphic data from the MnModel Phase 4 Landscape Model, and wetland distributions as modeled by the MnModel Phase 4 Historic Vegetation Model. The updated procedures produce two models, one for historic hydrography and one for prehistoric hydrography. The historic hydrographic model approximates surface water features (lakes, rivers, varied types of wetlands, and floodplains) at the time of the Public Land Survey. The prehistoric hydrographic model approximates surface water features over a time period exceeding thirteen thousand years, using historic hydrographic data, soils data, geomorphic data, and modern hydrographic data to identify areas that provide evidence of having been lakes, wetlands, shores, and floodplains at some time in the more distant past.