Pavement Performance Prediction Models

The Minnesota Department of Transportation has collected pavement distress and ride data from the pavements in their system since 1967. In 1986, the data was analyzed to develop pavement performance prediction models that were based on the growth of pavement distresses such as cracking, rutting, and roughness. The analysis at that time was limited by the amount of data available and was considered to be an interim study. The amount and quality of data presently available has improved from that available in 1986 and new or improved models could be developed. The work involved the analysis of all of the pavement condition data collected since 1983 when improved collection procedures were implemented. A literature search was also conducted. The results of the study was the evaluation of pavement life and the development of mathematical models that describe the growth of the distresses rated and the change in roughness over time. Over 100 pavement groupings were evaluated. The groupings were selected on the bases of a variety of pavement attributes including surface type, functional class, and region (construction district). The life of the pavements were evaluated based on the number of years they remained in service and on the basis of performance indices. It was found that the number of years a pavement remains in service can not be used to infer performance potential since a number of pavements were rehabilitated for reasons other than condition; the predicted pavement condition provides a better indication of the performance life of a pavement. The prediction of future pavement performance is accomplished by using the distress growth models to predict the growth of the distresses; the future condition indices are than calculated from the predicted distress amounts.